Betting on the NFL Preseason
Years ago, we used to think that anyone that bet preseason football was only doing so because they haven’t been able to do so in nearly six months. But today, smart bettors have come to realize there’s gold in them thar hills. Just like the regular season you must pick your spots because there are a few hidden gems to be taken advantage of in exhibition play. And, if you’re disciplined, you can go into the regular season with a bankroll. Gamechangerz handicapper Joe D'Amico lays out his approach for betting on the NFL preseason.
When betting NFLX, there are a few factors to take into consideration. For starters, knowing how many plays or series the “A-Team” or first string will play takes precedence. On paper, some matchups look too good to be true. So be sure to be up to date as to key players playing time. Not just the starters, but their back-ups as well. Speaking of back-ups, in some cases, the #2 or even the #3 spots on a depth chart is up for grabs. Check out the team page and see who is vying for those spots and how many snaps those players are slated to take.
Next, the coaching issue. New and existing coaches have tendencies when it comes to preseason play. If it is a new coach to the NFL, perhaps he is looking to make an immediate impact. Some because they just want to win and some because they need to justify their new contracts. When it comes to existing coaches, history shows us that some love to win in August and some couldn’t care less. This is where trends and streaks of past exhibition seasons come into play.
This next item is big for me when choosing to bet an NFLX game. I am talking about ticket sales. We all know that there are some teams, no matter the hype surrounding new acquisitions, that just have no shot at making the post-season. Fans know it too. However, there are some teams no matter their forecast that will always sell or have a wait to buy season tickets. Some franchises need to win right away in order to boost individual home games and season ticket sales. Keep an eye on this and it will pay off for you.
Every August you can pick up the sports page and read about certain star athletes that just aren’t in “game shape.” These are usually players with long term deals but nevertheless, each august there are a few key guys. Read the news and be sure to follow what major player are in top form.
There is one thing that works in the preseason as well as it does during the regular season. That is matchups. Some key QB’s or RB’s need more playing time and face a “B Team” defense resulting in a mismatch. On the flipside, some QB’S and RB’s are struggling to get in sync or learn a new system and some defenses can be overloaded with playmakers that match up well, also resulting in a mismatch.
Lastly, often odds makers have the wrong number on quite a few pre-season games. This is done by mistake due to new personnel or because they themselves, don’t know how many snaps or series the starters will play. They also sometimes depend on what they feel are “fan favorites” or teams that get more action by bettors, which in the preseason can result in an “off” line.
One thing I know, is I would never go into a battle with a slingshot. I would arm myself with an arsenal of weapons. Some of the topics I brought up are unorthodox but looking at this a different way is what is needed to win this time of year.